Be very afraid, please

Reuters

AMERICA and Israel often hint at military action to stop Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons programme. The latest rumblings, however, may be more serious. The atmosphere has been charged by a combination of factors: Iran’s expanding uranium-enrichment programme, faltering diplomatic efforts to halt it, a dying American administration and a nervous Israel. Throw in the latest war games by Israel, America and Iran—and Iran’s apparent rejection of the latest international incentives to halt its nuclear work—and some reckon the sparks could soon fly.

On July 9th Iranian television showed the test-firing of nine missiles (see picture), a day after an aide to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened to “burn” Tel Aviv and American ships in the Gulf, and strike at America’s “vital interests around the globe”, if it were attacked. More tests took place on July 10th.

This was a response to Israel’s demonstration of its own long arm in June, when about 100 Israeli jets took part in exercises that appeared to rehearse the bombing of distant targets. Western officials were struck by helicopter sorties of more than 800 miles (1,290km), about the distance from Israel to Iran, to simulate the rescue of downed pilots. Israel conducted the exercise with Greece, rather than its traditional partner, Turkey, maybe because Greece has some of the Russian SA-20 anti-aircraft missiles Iran recently bought.

In the Gulf, meanwhile, American, British and Bahraini ships are involved in a joint exercise to protect gas and oil installations. This seems to be a reaction to Iran’s threats to retaliate against any attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for roughly 40% of the world’s traded oil, and striking at neighbouring countries.

Does this public bellicosity really make military action more likely? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, dismissed the idea this week as a “funny joke”. And, yes, Israel could well be bluffing, waving its big stick in order to make the rewards the Europeans, Americans, Russians and Chinese are offering Iran in return for an end to uranium enrichment look more tempting. But whether or not Israel has frightened Iran, it has clearly rattled others.

France’s Total, an energy giant, said this week it was giving up plans to invest in Iran because of the risk. A top British government official puts the chance of an Israeli strike at 30%. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of America’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, was worried enough to say publicly that a third war (after Afghanistan and Iraq) would be “extremely stressful, very challenging, with consequences that would be difficult to predict”. As to whether Israel might act alone, he said: “This is a very unstable part of the world, and I don’t need it to become more unstable.”

One uncertainty is how close Iran is to being able to make a nuclear weapon (an aspiration it vehemently denies). America’s controversial National Intelligence Estimate, made public in December, said that Iran had indeed run a weaponisation programme but seemed to stop it in 2003. The Iranians continue (despite UN sanctions) to enrich uranium, but most Western experts think they have much to learn before being able to make the high-enriched variety for a bomb. America’s estimate is that the soonest Iran could make enough for one device would be the end of 2009, but that it could take five or more years longer.

Israeli officials are less sanguine. So far Iran has produced only a small amount of low-enriched uranium, but this could eventually be converted to the bomb-making sort. For all its sabre-rattling, Israel still says that diplomacy is preferable to war. But a number of political and military considerations may yet convince Israel to act alone—sooner rather than later.

One of these is the departure of the friendly Bush administration and the possible advent of a President Obama, who has promised to do “everything” to stop Iran getting a bomb but who is distrusted by many Israelis. Another is that Iran’s Russian-built reactor at Bushehr is due to start working in October. This is less worrying than the underground enrichment facility at Natanz. But if Israel intends to bomb it, it would be best to do so before it is loaded with nuclear fuel. Finally, it would be easier for Israel to act before Iran deploys its SA-20s, which may happen in early 2009.

That said, an effective attack against Iran’s buried and dispersed nuclear facilities would not be easy, even if Israel knew where all of them were. There will be no element of surprise, as when Israel bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981, and a Syrian facility which America said afterwards was a secret reactor last September.

Another unknown is whether Israel would dare to strike Iran without a green or at least an amber light from the Americans. Without one, flying to Iran the direct way—through American-controlled Iraqi airspace—would be fraught with danger. An unauthorised Israeli strike that added to America’s miscellaneous woes in the Middle East would test even the closest alliance, jeopardising Israel’s relationship with its vital patron and armourer.

Against this must be weighed Israel’s visceral sense of vulnerability, sharpened not only by the Jewish state’s history but also by the implacability of Iran, whose government rules out any accommodation with the “Zionist regime” and repeatedly predicts its disappearance. Nobody can be quite sure that in a corner, confronting what it believed to be existential peril, Israel will not act—alone if necessary.

Judah Ben-Hur knew which sport was super

Tens of millions of viewers tuned in last night to watch the Super Bowl–the biggest “big game” on America’s sports calendar. Amid all the bone-crushing competition and superfluous spectacle, we couldn’t help but think about the most brutal and popular game in ancient Rome.

If you’re thinking gladiatorial contests, we have a surprise for you. Yes, the gladiators were popular, but the real action was down the road–in the Circus Maximus. That’s right. The Romans’ biggest “big game” was chariot racing.

ast Times at the CircusRoman chariots raced on tracks called “circuses” (because of their oval shape). The greatest of these, the Circus Maximus, started out simply as a flat space between two hills on which spectators sat. Eventually, it was ringed with bleachers–first of wood, then of stone. Admission was free, and there were seats for as many as 250,000 people. By comparison, the Colosseum sat no more than 50,000.

Most races featured quadriga teams–four horses yoked to each chariot. Up to twelve chariots per race took off from an elaborate starting gate, then sped along a sandy track. The chariots were lightly constructed of wood and, with four horses pulling together, they moved like lightning. But there were seven laps in a race (totaling three or four miles), and the corners were tight, so drivers had to rein their teams just right if they hoped to win–or even live to race another day.

Death Before Defeat

High-ranking Romans weren’t allowed to race in the Circus, so drivers tended to be low born–most were former slaves. With a cash purse riding on every contest, chariot racing was a way for talented men to make a lot of money and climb the social ladder.

Chasing wealth and glory, drivers often threw caution to the horse-sped wind. They wore helmets and wrapped leather around their chests for safety. But they also tied the reins around their waists to free their hands, and that could spell trouble. If a chariot capsized and a driver found himself dragged behind his team, his only chance was to cut the reins with a special curved dagger he wore for that purpose.

With so many teams taking tight turns at high speeds, it wasn’t unusual to see a driver get hurt. The Roman poet Martial wrote a verse in honor of the charioteer Scorpus, who won more than 2,000 races. His career ended abruptly when he took a turn too fast, flipped his chariot, and died.

Curse You, Ben-Hur!

Now, what could make chariot racing even more thrilling? Try team rivalries. Every chariot driver in the Circus Maximus belonged to one of four stables, known by their colors: red, green, white, and blue. Each stable had a star driver, and his teammates worked hard to make sure he won.

Fans identified strongly with favorite teams, and did what they could to cheer its star to victory (or heckle a hated rival to defeat). Archaeologists have even found ancient curse tablets in which fans tried to sabotage their favorite team’s rivals by means of the dark arts.

With so much passion invested in the sport, it’s no wonder that politicians found a way to exploit it. The famous phrase “bread and circuses” refers to the Roman method of distracting disaffected folk with free food and spectacular races at public expense. Better to pay for racing than put down revolt.

Events in Pakistan matter to the world.
In this special reference issue, we’ll show you why.

A Peek at Pakistan

Pakistan makes world news headlines all the time. You know that the nuclear-armed nation is both a key U.S. ally in the fight against al-Qaeda and a major base for al-Qaeda. But what else do you know about it?

Find out what you should know now
Get the PDF

Pakistan, By the Numbers

With nearly 165 million people, Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous country. Only China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil have more people. Among mainly Muslim countries, Pakistan is the second largest (after Indonesia), and the only one with nuclear weapons.

Put Pakistan squarely on your mental map–
with our summary of its key stats

Pakistan, On the Map

The news often talks ominously of “instability in Pakistan.” With our Pakistan slideshow, you’ll understand why. We’ll show you–using seven different maps–how the nation emerged from British India just 60 years ago and why it faces challenges from practically every side now.

Learn visually about Pakistan–
with our slideshow of detailed maps

Why Kashmir Gives People the Sweats

For 60 years, India and Pakistan have been on the brink of war in Kashmir. Why have both nuclear nations been willing to risk the ultimate conflict? The territorial tiff goes back to Britain’s imperial shrinkage after World War II. Yet the conflict’s cultural roots go far deeper.

Learn why India and Pakistan fight
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Where in the World Is Osama bin Laden?

Who knows! But lots of experts think he’s holed up somewhere in the arid, punishing, mountainous terrain along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border–hiding in a tiny crack in colonial history. Here’s how that crack came to be.

Learn why Pakistan has “tribal areas”
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What would Ben Franklin think?

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Friends, America’s Federal Communications Commission voted on Tuesday to let media companies own both a newspaper and a television or radio station in the nation’s 20 largest media markets. The controversial decision reverses a longstanding ban on such cross-media conglomeration.

Opponents of the change say the old rule helped prevent major media companies from becoming too dominant. Supporters say the new rule simply recognizes a changing media landscape, in which newspapers are struggling to find readers and more folks find the information they need online.

Either way, we say it’s a good time to look back at American media’s roots–to a time when local voices like Ben Franklin’s dominated. After all, before he messed around with lightning or charmed French royalty, old Ben was a newspaperman.

An Ink-Stained Wretch

Back then, printers did it all–interviewing recently arrived ship captains for out-of-town news, writing articles, plagiarizing stories from other newspapers, selling ads, printing the pages, and distributing the final product. In fact, most colonial newspapers sprang from small printshops that employed just the owner and his teenage apprentice.

Ben Franklin started in the printing trade as an apprentice to his older brother, James, who ran a small printshop in Boston. Working there exposed the young Franklin to different kinds of writing and gave him a chance to borrow books on the sly from booksellers’ apprentices.

In those days, printers had to be smart and strong. Composing the pages was a mental feat–type was set letter by letter, using little blocks of metal, and for the page to appear correctly when printed, every line had to be composed in reverse. (Many printers were as adept at reading backward as forward.) After the pages were made, the printer personally pulled the lever on the heavy wooden press to stamp the image–one page at a time. No wonder few colonial newspapers had a press run of more than 300.

The Life and Times of Silence Dogood

James Franklin wanted his publication, the New-England Courant, to be more than the usual collection of 6-month-old news that appeared in other colonial newspapers. So he solicited articles. In 1722, 14 letters appeared in the New-England Courant signed by “Silence Dogood.” The middle-aged widow had a lot to say about the clergy, fashion, and political matters, and people loved it–even if they didn’t know who the Widow Dogood really was.

Using a pen name was common at the time, so everyone knew “Dogood” wasn’t her real name. But no one knew that 16-year-old Ben had actually written the letters, sliding them under the printshop’s door at night.

A year after the Silence Dogood letters were published, Ben ran away from his brother’s employ. (Things got rough for James after he was thrown in jail for suggesting the local authorities were in cahoots with pirates.) Still in his teens, Ben apprenticed with a Philadelphia printer before sailing for London and working there for two years. By 1729, he was back in Philadelphia and publishing his own newspaper, the Pennsylvania Gazette.

All the News Ben Could Print

The Gazette was like most newspapers of its day–no headlines, few illustrations, and it ran only four pages. What set it apart was Franklin’s lively version of local news. He filled the columns with anecdotes like this one: “And sometime last Week, we are informed, that one Piles a Fidler, with his Wife, were overset in a Canoo near Newtown Creek. The good Man, ’tis said, prudently secur’d his Fiddle, and let his Wife go to the Bottom.” The Pennsylvania Gazette became one of the most successful newspapers of its time.

Colonial newspapers had no separate editorial pages, but they were packed with opinions. Just as he had done in his Silence Dogood days, Franklin often wrote an article in the voice of a fictional citizen. In 1735, he printed a letter purportedly written by an elderly gentleman, who encouraged his fellow Philadelphians to establish a volunteer fire department. The imaginary old man described leaping out the window of a burning house. By the end of the year, the Union Fire Company of Philadelphia had formed.

“Poor Richard” Makes Ben Wealthy

Franklin’s most successful editorial alter ego was “Poor Richard” Saunders, the pen name Franklin used for the 25 years he published Poor Richard’s Almanack. In the colonies, practically every printer published an annual almanac. These thick pamphlets, showing the phases of the moon and predicting the weather, were moneymakers because most literate households purchased one every year.

In 1732, Franklin threw together a 24-page publication with a first-person preface signed by Richard Saunders. The “author,” a destitute stargazer whose shrewish wife threatened to burn all his books and astronomy instruments if he didn’t “make some profitable use of them,” admitted the reason he wrote the almanac was to make a little money and get her off his back.

From 1732 to 1757, Poor Richard’s grew in popularity as readers found more than the usual astronomical charts and tidal tables. Tucked into this almanac were proverbs such as “Early to Bed, and early to rise, makes a Man healthy, wealthy and wise.” Franklin said he saw the almanac as a way to educate folks who might not buy any other books and so “filled all the little spaces that occurred between the Remarkable Days in the Calendar, with Proverbial Sentences, chiefly such as inculcated Industry and Frugality.”

Some years Franklin sold 10,000 copies. Combined with good investments and lucrative printing contracts, the profits from the almanac allowed him to retire from printing at the ripe old age of 42. Of course, Franklin’s “retirement” was more active than many a person’s working life. And though he was hailed as a scientist, diplomat, patriot, and philosopher, at the end of his days, Franklin was still proud of his printshop roots. When he wrote his will at the age of 82, he began: “I, Benjamin Franklin, printer, . . . “

Americana

Yesterday, while snooping around America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), we noticed something important. Though the CIA gets more press, the National Security Agency (NSA) actually “employs more people and consumes more cash.” Several readers wrote in to ask if that could possibly be true. It is.

So why does the CIA get all the attention? Because that’s exactly the way the NSA likes it. For decades, the U.S. government didn’t even admit that the NSA existed. It did its work secretly, governed only by executive order. The joke for those in the know was that NSA stood for “No Such Agency.” Today, let’s snoop around this cryptic intelligence group.

Civilian vs. Military Intelligence

The NSA got its start in 1952, when President Harry Truman created it with a secret stroke of his executive pen. Congress had already created the CIA five years earlier, with the National Security Act of 1947. But the civilian CIA didn’t eliminate the various military intelligence services, nor did it focus on doing what the military services did best: intercepting and reading an enemy’s mail, overhearing its private conversations, and cracking its secret codes.

To consolidate the military’s intelligence gathering for the Cold War, the NSA put all the military’s eavesdroppers and codebreakers under one general or admiral, who reported directly to the Secretary of Defense. It’s been that way ever since. While the NSA employs tens of thousands of civilians–including more math PhDs than anyone else–it remains inside the Defense Department. It even has its own troops, in a special branch called the Central Security Service.

HUMINT vs. SIGINT

To avoid superfluous spying, the civilian CIA sticks to what spymasters call HUMINT, or human intelligence. When James Bond makes contact with a double agent inside enemy territory, or gives a bad guy the back of his hand, that’s HUMINT. The NSA’s bailiwick is SIGINT, or signals intelligence, and while it doesn’t sound nearly as glamorous, many think it’s far more powerful.

The NSA uses a worldwide web of state-of-the-art satellites, listening posts, and intercept stations to capture and record huge volumes of the world’s communications. It then runs these communications through some of the world’s most powerful computers, scanning for keywords or patterns that require an analyst’s attention. An unofficial agency motto: “In God we trust. All others we monitor.”

Domestic vs. Foreign SIGINT

Officially, the NSA performs its SIGINT sweeps only “against foreign powers or agents of foreign powers.” But that doesn’t mean the communications of U.S. citizens aren’t sucked into NSA computers. NSA officials point out that, in today’s world, there is no clear and easy distinction between domestic and foreign communications.

“The networks have collapsed into one another,” said one official, “and many of our targets are on the same network that we use. It is now just ‘the network’–the global telecommunications infrastructure.” So, when U.S. citizens do appear in NSA data, analysts withhold their names from intelligence reports. But the information remains in the files, and there are exceptions that allow for its release.

–Michael Himick

If someday we have a world without journalists, or at least without editors, what would the news agenda look like? How would citizens make up a front page differently than professional news people?

If a new crop of user-news sites—and measures of user activity on mainstream news sites—are any indication, the news agenda will be more diverse, more transitory, and often draw on a very different and perhaps controversial list of sources, according to a new study.

The report, released by the Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ), compared the news agenda of the mainstream media for one week with the news agenda found on a host of user-news sites for the same period.

In a week when the mainstream press was focused on Iraq and the debate over immigration, the three leading user-news sites—Reddit, Digg and Del.icio.us—were more focused on stories like the release of Apple’s new iphone and that Nintendo had surpassed Sony in net worth, according to the study.

The report also found subtle differences in three other forms of user-driven content within one site: Yahoo News’ Most Recommended, Most Viewed, and Most Emailed.

The question of whether citizens define the news differently than professionals is becoming increasingly relevant. It started with offering visitors a sense of what others found interesting: what news stories were most emailed and most viewed?

Soon, establishment news sites like CBSNews.com allowed users to make their own newscasts. Then, names like Digg, Reddit and Del.icio.us emerged as virtual town squares that became a way to measure the pulse of what the web community finds most newsworthy, most captivating, or just amusing. The trend continues, as even Myspace, the social networking site popular among 20-somethings, has launched a news page (http://news.myspace.com).

Indeed, these user-driven sites have entered the news business, or perhaps more accurately, they have entered the news dissemination business. Reporting is not a part of their charge. Instead, they turn to others for content and then they bestow users with the task of deciding what makes it on the page.

What do individuals do with that power? What kind of events or issues do they choose to highlight? And how does it differ from the news the mainstream press offers?

To find out, PEJ took a snapshot of coverage from the week of June 24 to June 29, 2007, on three sites that offer user-driven news agendas: Digg, Del.icio.us and Reddit. In addition, the Project studied Yahoo News, an outlet that offers an editor-based news page and three different lists of user-ranked news: Most Recommended, Most Viewed, and Most Emailed. These sites were then compared with the news agenda found in the 48 mainstream news outlets contained in PEJ’s News Coverage Index.

A total of 644 stories from the three user-driven sites and Yahoo News’s three most popular pages were coded for the study and then compared to 1,395 stories from the same time period in PEJ’s News Coverage Index. The report first compared the content of the user-sites to that of the mainstream press. Next, it compared the three user-sites to each other. Finally, the study looked at the three user-oriented pages on Yahoo News, comparing them to Yahoo’s editor-selected news page, to the other user-sites, and to each other.

Some key findings include: